Welcome to our September 2025 real estate update! In this edition, we're diving into the latest trends and news about the housing market, with insights on price fluctuations, inventory changes, and regional updates. Whether you're buying, selling, or just staying informed, we've got the details you need to navigate the evolving market and make smart decisions.

September Financial Market News

• U.S. consumer confidence held mostly steady in August at 97.4, with home buying plans unchanged after July’s dip, though inflation expectations ticked up to 6.2% and job outlooks weakened.
  
  
• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 2.9% in July, slightly hotter than June’s 2.8%, but markets still see an 87% chance of a September rate cut, with mortgage rates already dipping to a 10-month low.
  
  
• U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025, following a contraction in the first quarter. The increase was driven by a sharp decline in imports, along with gains in business investment and consumer spending.
  
  
• The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August as unemployment rose to 4.3%; slower wage growth and fewer openings point to a cooler market, though income gains in some metros are helping home buying power.
  
  
• September has historically brought an average 1.1% decline for the Dow, but this year’s outlook is brighter after August gains of 3.2% for the Dow, 1.9% for the S&P 500, and 1.6% for the Nasdaq, with a Fed rate cut expected mid-month.
  
  

September National Housing Market News

• Active listings surged 26% in July compared to last year, adding nearly 300,000 homes to the market. This marks the 7th consecutive month of inventory growth.
  
  
• Mortgage rates fell to an 11-month low, giving buyers on a $3,000 monthly budget $22,000 more purchasing power compared to June.
  
  
• Single-family housing starts rose 2.8% to an annual rate of 939,000, driven by a 13% monthly jump in the South, while overall housing starts including multifamily increased 5.2% to 1.43 million units.
  
  
• Steve Trautwein, a 35-year mortgage veteran, says 2026 could be the “year of the ARM”, predicting adjustable-rate mortgages may run 1.5–2% lower than 30-year fixed rates, though he cautions borrowers to carefully weigh the risks of future resets.
  
  
• Sekisui House (the 6th largest U.S. homebuilder) is bringing its Shawood homes from Japan to the U.S. West, offering expansive open floor plans, net-zero energy packages, and wellness-focused designs built to withstand natural disasters.
  
  
• Mortgage rates dipped to 6.58% in late August, the lowest in 10 months, boosting affordability as pending sales rose 1.6% and median payments dropped to $2,127.
  
  
• Mega investors (companies or funds that own 1,000+ homes) now make up nearly one-third of U.S. home purchases, targeting markets like Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Memphis, where rents have climbed 15% since before the pandemic.
  
  
• New data shows that in Q2, Florida metros showed some of the highest levels of homeownership: North Port (79.5%), Cape Coral (74.0%), and Jacksonville (64.7%).
  
  
• Lawmakers introduced the bipartisan Rural Housing Service Reform Act to boost affordable housing in small towns, with plans to preserve USDA rental units, expand grants for home repairs and in-home daycare, and speed up rural loan applications by modernizing USDA programs.
  
  
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to tackle affordability, with options under review that include reducing closing costs and standardizing building and zoning rules to speed construction.
  
  
• Taylor Morrison, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, is offering Yardly renters up to $5,000 toward purchasing a Taylor Morrison home, usable at any community nationwide, as it expands its built-to-rent footprint across Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.
  
  
• A new AARP-Pew survey found strong support for policies that expand housing supply, with respondents backing faster permitting, commercial-to-housing conversions, and apartments near transit and jobs, though older adults were less enthusiastic about accessory dwelling units.

September 2025 National Housing Trends

• New data shows that older renters are on the rise nationwide — the share of renters 65+ climbed from 10.4% in 2013 to 13.4% in 2023, adding 2.4 million more seniors renting homes.
  
  
• Homeowners are sitting on record equity— nearly $18 trillion nationwide in Q2 2025 — with longtime owners seeing their home values double or even triple since the 1990s and 2000s, creating major wealth-building opportunities.
  
  
• Mortgage originations climbed in Q2 2025, with Anchorage, AK, Hilo, HI, and Yuma, AZ among the top metros leading annual growth, and Indianapolis, IN seeing a 29% jump with more than 19,000 loans issued.
  
  
• A new study finds homeowners with low credit scores can pay nearly $2,000 more a year for insurance than neighbors with strong credit, a bigger factor in premiums than even climate risk in many states.
  
  
• Master-planned communities are booming in places like Texas and Florida, with The Villages leading the nation at 3,200+ sales in 2024, offering resort-style amenities and strong home value protection despite fees and rules.
  
  
• Buyers are finally catching a break in pricey metros; Redfin says the income needed to afford a median home has dropped in Oakland, San Diego, Sacramento, Phoenix, and Dallas, thanks to rising inventory and cooling prices.
  
  
• Land demand has cooled, dropping to 28% of brokers seeing strong demand in Q2 2025 vs 76% last year, which could help bring land costs down and pave the way for more affordable new homes ahead.
  
  
• Older home buyers are flocking to metros like Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, and San Jose, where the average homeowner age is now over 52, highlighting a preference for warm climates, strong amenities, and lifestyle-focused markets.
  
  
• For the fourth month in a row, new homes are selling for less than existing ones, about $19,000 cheaper in July (after a record $28,000 gap in June) as builders cut prices and offer incentives to move inventory.
  
  
• Harvard projects that baby boomers and people of color will drive the bulk of household growth through 2035, with Hispanics accounting for nearly half of net gains and the potential for higher homeownership if affordability improves.
  
  
• Short-term rentals are driving up home prices in Maine tourist towns like Newry, where the median list price nearly doubled to $878K in five years, prompting local debates and stricter regulations such as Portland’s cap on non-owner-occupied STRs.
  
  

September Regional Housing Market News

Curious about how the housing market is shifting in your area? Here’s a closer look at the latest trends across different regions of the U.S. From price changes to inventory updates, we’ve got the insights you need to stay ahead in your local market.

September 2025 Northeast Region Housing News:

• Richmond, VA is getting 2,200 new homes as HHHunt launches The Aire at Westchester, a mixed-use project of condos, townhouses, single-family homes, and apartments — coming as the region’s listings jumped 18.7% year-over-year in July.
  
  
• A Frank Lloyd Wright–inspired 9,000-square-foot mansion in Ann Arbor just hit the market for $4.5M, featuring Prairie Style design, exotic ipe wood floors, and a luxury eight-car garage.
  
  
• Greenwich’s (CT) housing market showed strong momentum with single-family sales rising, days on market dropping, and the median price climbing nearly 13% year-over-year to $3.5M.
  
  
• Pennsylvania’s housing inventory climbed to a three-year high with more than 42,000 homes for sale, a 9.5% jump year-over-year that agents say is moving the market toward healthier balance and more sustainable pricing.
  
  
• In Baltimore, a $900M Harborplace redevelopment will break ground in 2026, bringing 900 apartments and 200K sq. ft. of retail across four new buildings with phased completion through 2031.
  
  

September 2025 Midwest Region Housing News: 

• A former 1930s car dealership in Columbus’s Short North Arts District is now a 6,300-square-foot loft-style condo listed at $2.49M, offering rare industrial design and big-city flair in Ohio’s capital.
  
  
• Naperville’s housing market stayed hot as scarce land pushed more buyers toward existing homes, driving multimillion-dollar sales and keeping demand strong in the Chicago metro area’s second-fastest-growing city.
  
  
• La Crosse, WI, ranked No. 44 on Realtor.com’s 2025 Hottest ZIP Codes list, with homes selling in a median of 34 days, nearly three weeks faster than the national average. Its $340K median price is over $100K below the U.S. median, highlighting the Midwest’s draw for buyers seeking affordability and lifestyle.
  
  
• Kansas City’s multifamily market is outperforming nationally, with 3.1% annual rent growth (third among top metros), strong occupancy at 94.5%, and major redevelopment projects underway despite slower investment activity.
  
  

September 2025 Texas Housing News:

• PulteGroup is building its first 55-and-over community in the Austin area in more than 30 years, with over 500 homes planned at Lost Pines as the region becomes one of the nation’s fastest-growing retirement markets.
  
  
• Texas metros saw some of the nation’s highest shares of price-reduced listings, with 31% of homes in Austin and Dallas marked down as active inventory climbed, putting pressure on sellers in both markets.
  
  
• Centurion American is launching Preston Harbor in Denison, a 3,100-acre lakefront community on Lake Texoma that could bring up to 7,500 homes plus a marina, trails, shops, and even a Margaritaville hotel over the next decade.
  
  
• McKinney, Texas, was named the best real estate market in the U.S. by WalletHub, which ranked 300 cities; five North Texas markets made the national top 10, highlighting the region’s strong housing demand and economic growth.
  
  • Richardson ranked No. 5, Frisco No. 6, Denton No. 9, and Allen No. 10.

September 2025 Southeast Region Housing News: 

• Home prices in Orlando climbed 2.4% to a median of $420,000, ranking among the nation’s top 20 markets for price growth as sales ticked higher and mortgage rates hit their lowest point of 2025.
  
  
• DRB Homes just closed three land deals in North Carolina’s Research Triangle that will add nearly 200 new houses, with prices starting in the $600Ks to $800Ks as demand stays strong from in-migration and job growth.
  
  
• Buyers in Atlanta needed about $104K in income, a 2% drop from last year, while St. Louis stayed far more affordable at $75K, with the income needed falling 1% year-over-year.
  
  
• Miami-Dade listings surged 40% year-over-year to more than 22,000 — the second-highest jump in the nation — pushing the median price down 1.2% to $550,000 as condos flood the market.
  
  
• Atlanta’s multifamily market is stabilizing, with rents inching up to $1,646, occupancy at 93.1%, and more than 7,500 units delivered in the first half of 2025.
  
  

September 2025 Southwest Region Housing News: 

• Luxury land in Arizona is booming as Paradise Valley lots sell for over $5M within days, putting prices on par with Beverly Hills and Aspen while wealthy buyers rush to build ultra high-end custom homes.
  
  
• Oklahoma City listings jumped 20% year-over-year to a record 7,965 homes, the highest in its history, as prices rose 2.6% to a median of $277,000.
  
  
• Nevada’s active listings climbed 53% year-over-year to more than 13,000 homes, with a median price of $499,450 and 54 days on market. Nearly one-quarter of listings had price cuts, while Las Vegas led the surge with a 66% jump in listings to almost 10,000 homes.
  
  
• Luxury buyers driven by the “Yellowstone effect” are snapping up trophy ranches, with properties like Wyoming’s 916,000-acre Pathfinder Ranch ($79.5M) and Colorado’s Antlers Ranch ($85M) hitting the market as legacy families sell and wealthy urban buyers move in.
  
  

September 2025 Pacific Northwest Housing News:

• Washington’s active listings climbed 32% year-over-year to more than 24,000 homes, with a median price of $659,475, an average of 45 days on market, and nearly 23% of listings seeing price cuts.
  
  
• Oregon had one of the highest shares of price-reduced listings at 28% in July, with more than 8,000 homes seeing markdowns, a median price of $577,000, and listings spending about 60 days on the market.
  
  
• Chicago developer Sterling Bay is expanding into single-family housing in Idaho with Tributary in Driggs—adding a new activity center and resort-style amenities—where homes built since 2024 have averaged $4.15M and homesites run about $1.3M.
  
  

September 2025 California Housing News:

• Just 16 miles northeast of San Francisco, Richmond’s Annex neighborhood is getting 100 new townhouses at Cherry Blossom Row, where prices start around $700K with solar included — far below San Francisco’s $1.9M median.
  
  
• Oakland buyers need about $244K in income to afford a median home, down 4.6% year-over-year, the steepest affordability gain in the nation.
  
  
• Nearly 19% of California homes are now owned by investors, contributing to affordability issues. In mountain areas like Sierra County, that figure spikes to 83%, while urban hotspots like L.A. and San Francisco sit around 15–16%.
  
  
• San Mateo’s former GoPro headquarters will be redeveloped into 225 new townhomes and single-family homes, with 15% reserved for low-income households, offering a rare boost to the Bay Area’s for-sale housing supply.
  
  
• Pacific Palisades utility billing has resumed for the first time since January’s wildfire. Residents will not face late fees through 2025, and Los Angeles has launched the HOME LA program offering up to $15,000 in incentives for rebuilding with energy-efficient systems.
  
  
• San Jose completed California’s first sale of an accessory dwelling unit as its own property, a new approach aimed at expanding affordable homeownership.
  
  

Be sure to check back next month for our updated insights and trends to keep you informed on the latest developments. In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, our Home Loan Specialists are always ready to help you make the right move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Check our FAQs for responses to our most popular questions about our monthly housing updates.

How often does Churchill Mortgage send out market updates?

We publish real estate updates at the start of every month to help you stay informed on housing trends, mortgage rates, and economic news that could impact your next move.

What is the Rural Housing Service Reform Act and how could it affect me?

This proposed law would expand affordable housing options in rural communities by modernizing USDA programs, preserving rental units, and offering more grants for home repairs. If you live in or plan to buy in a smaller town, these changes could directly benefit you.

Why are new homes sometimes selling for less than existing homes?

In recent months, builders have been cutting prices and offering incentives to move inventory, which has made new construction homes about $19,000 cheaper than existing ones nationwide. This is unusual historically but could continue if inventory stays high.

Is it a good time to buy a home in September 2025?

For many buyers, yes. Lower rates, rising inventory, and builder incentives are improving affordability. However, the right timing depends on your personal finances and long-term plans, so talking with a local mortgage expert is key. Click here to get connected!

How do I sign up to receive Churchill Mortgage’s market updates?

Just visit churchillmortgage.com/articles and look for the “Sign Up for Our Email Newsletter” section on the right-hand side near the bottom of the page.

Are Churchill’s market updates national or regional?

Both! Our updates cover national housing trends and financial news, with breakdowns of key developments across major U.S. regions so you can see how the market is shifting in your area.

Can I talk to someone about what this means for my local market?

Absolutely! You can connect with a local Churchill Home Loan Specialist to talk through your goals and how market trends may impact your options.

Just click here to find an expert near you!

How can Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program help buyers?

Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program helps buyers by monitoring mortgage rates and notifying them when rates drop to their desired level. This gives buyers the opportunity to lock in lower rates, potentially saving thousands over the life of their loan. It's an excellent tool for buyers looking to maximize savings in a fluctuating market.

Why should I read Churchill’s real estate updates each month?

The housing market is always changing, and even small shifts in mortgage rates, inventory, or the broader economy can have a big impact on your buying power and timing.

Churchill’s monthly updates break down what’s happening nationally and regionally so you can stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're actively planning a move or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed helps you make smarter decisions—like when to lock in a rate, start a refinance, or begin your home search. We sort through the data, so you don’t have to.