From cooling inflation and housing policy changes to red-hot local markets and new development projects, last month brought plenty of news that could impact buyers, sellers, and homeowners. Here's a look at the key economic trends, housing market updates, and regional highlights shaping real estate across the country.

Key Takeaways: July 2026 Housing Market

• Inflation fell 0.4% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020.

• Hartford, CT remains the nation’s hottest housing market, with home prices up 12% year-over-year.

• The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June. 

• Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.
  
  
  

The Big Picture: Economy & Rates

• The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June with residential construction losing 8,600 jobs, signaling continued challenges in the housing and construction sectors.

• Inflation cooled more than expected in June, with the Consumer Price Index falling 0.4%—the largest monthly decline since 2020—helping ease Treasury yields and reducing the odds of a July interest rate hike despite recent oil-related headlines.

• America’s largest banks reported stronger-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, reflecting a resilient economy and healthy consumer finances despite ongoing affordability challenges.

National Housing Market Trends: July 2026

• New homes continue to get smaller, with the median size dropping to 2,142 square feet in 2025—down 13.2% from a decade ago—as builders focus on affordability and changing buyer preferences.

• Multigenerational living remains popular, with 19% of Gen X home buyers purchasing homes with adult children in 2025.

• Although 14.5 million homes in the U.S. are considered vacant, most are second homes, rentals, or properties tied up in legal, estate, or renovation processes—leaving fewer than 800,000 actually available for sale.
  
  
• Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (59%) would choose a smaller yard if it meant living in a more walkable neighborhood with nearby amenities.
  
  
• Realtor.com forecasts existing-home sales to increase 1.0% in 2026, reaching approximately 4.1 million transactions as affordability gradually improves.
  
  
• Inventory is projected to grow 3.6% this year, giving buyers more options and helping reduce some of the competitive pressure seen in recent years.
  
  

Walkability matters: 59% of Americans say they'd rather have nearby amenities than a larger yard.

National Housing Policy & Industry News: July 2026

Housing policy, technology, and affordability are all shaping how homes are being built and bought right now.

• The new “Trump Accounts” program will provide eligible children born between 2025 and 2028 with a $1,000 government-funded investment account, giving future generations a potential head start on major expenses like homeownership.
  
  
• Communities across the U.S. are revisiting zoning rules that have historically limited housing density, as policymakers look for ways to increase inventory through townhomes, duplexes, and smaller-lot development.
  
  
• A startup is testing AI-powered computing units in residential neighborhoods, offering homeowners energy upgrades and monthly compensation in exchange for hosting equipment that helps support growing demand for artificial intelligence technology.
  
  
• Airbnb is providing free temporary housing for Colorado residents displaced by ongoing wildfires, including the Aspen Acres Fire, which has burned nearly 50,000 acres and damaged at least 150 structures.
  
  
• HUD and the VA announced $33 million in funding for 2,532 new housing vouchers to help veterans experiencing homelessness, building on a program that has assisted more than 250,000 veterans since 2008.
  
  
• In June, Congress passed the bipartisan 21st Century Road to Housing Act, legislation aimed at increasing housing supply, streamlining development, and improving housing affordability nationwide.
  
  
• Realtor.com and other housing industry advocates are pushing to keep home listings publicly available, arguing that buyers should have access to the full market, including price histories and days on market, before making an offer.
  
  
• One of the nation's largest real estate referral networks is joining Keller Williams, a move that could broaden consumer access to agents through partnerships with major housing and mortgage platforms.

Regional Housing Market Updates: July 2026

What’s Happening Across the Country

While national trends are shifting toward balance, local markets continue to move at their own pace. Here’s a concise look at what stands out by region.

Southeast Housing Market 

• Tampa’s housing market is becoming more balanced, with home sales down 2% year-over-year and active listings falling 11.2% compared to last May.
  
  
• Mississippi ranks #1 for starter-home affordability, with 61.8% of renters able to afford a starter home and a typical starter-home price of just $85,000.
  
  
• Knoxville, TN's housing market remains steady, with the average home value rising 0.9% year-over-year to $374,802 and homes going under contract in a median of just 16 days.

  
  
  

Hartford, CT remains red-hot, with home prices up 12% year-over-year and pending sales jumping 13% in May.

Northeast Housing Market

• Pittsburgh, PA, is encouraging new housing development by offering more than 250 vacant lots for redevelopment, aiming to increase housing supply and revitalize the Larimer neighborhood.

• Hartford, CT, remains one of the country's hottest housing markets, with the median single-family home price rising 12% year-over-year to $470,000 and pending sales increasing 13% in May, fueled by buyers relocating from Boston and New York.

• Delaware lawmakers approved a housing bill encouraging communities to make 20% of their housing stock affordable, as the state faces a need for 2,400 new homes per year by 2030, with at least half expected to be affordable housing.

Midwest Housing Market 

• Lawrence, KS, is expanding affordable housing options with the development of Floret Hill, a new 121-unit community where all apartments will be reserved for households earning 60% of the area median income or less.

• North Dakota rounds out the top five states where 52.7% of renters can afford a starter home priced at approximately $150,000.

• Cleveland, OH, approved $285 million in financing for three major housing projects, including a new 80-unit affordable housing community and the conversion of historic downtown office buildings into residential space.

   

  
  SpaceX’s Texas expansion is boosting housing demand and home values in communities like Bastrop, Brownsville, and Waco. (Getty)

   

Texas Housing Market 

• SpaceX’s rapid growth in Texas is driving housing demand in smaller communities, with rising incomes and home values transforming once-affordable markets like Bastrop, Brownsville, and Waco.

• San Antonio was named the most entrepreneurial city in the U.S. by GoDaddy, driven by 11% growth in microbusinesses since 2019, more than 9,200 new businesses launched in 2025, and home values ($278,644) that remain well below the national average.

• Fort Worth’s housing market continues to normalize, with a median sale price of $324,667 and home values down 2.2% compared to a year ago.
  
  

Southwest Housing Market Update 

• Scottsdale, Gilbert, and Chandler ranked as the top three U.S. rental markets in 2026, highlighting Arizona as one of the most attractive states for renters seeking affordability and quality of life.
  
  
• New Mexico housing developers are urging lawmakers to expand tax incentives and provide more predictable funding as the state works to address a housing shortage estimated at more than 34,000 homes.
  
  
• The housing market in Reno, NV remains competitive, with homes going under contract in a median of just 10 days and nearly 26% of sales closing above asking price.
  
  
• Utah’s Saratoga Springs has grown by an astonishing 7,100% since 1997, expanding from about 1,000 residents to nearly 72,000 as buyers are drawn to its affordability, family-friendly atmosphere, and proximity to Salt Lake City and Provo.
  
  
  

Pacific Northwest Housing Market 

• Bend, Oregon's luxury housing market continues to surge, with million-dollar home listings increasing 372% since 2017 and the city's median listing price reaching nearly $710,000—about 65% above the national median.
  
  
• Oregon approved a first-of-its-kind policy that increases electricity rates for data centers by 29% while lowering residential utility bills by an average of 1.3%, helping shift infrastructure costs away from homeowners.

• Spokane’s housing market remains active, with a median home sale price of $390,000 and homes going under contract in a median of 15 days.
  
  

California Housing Market 

• San Diego’s multifamily market remains strong, with apartment occupancy holding at 95.9% and more than 11,700 units currently under construction to meet future housing demand.
  
  
• A new 530-unit mixed-income housing community is coming to Gilroy, California, including 243 affordable units reserved for lower- and moderate-income households, helping address housing affordability in one of the nation's most expensive rental markets.

• Sacramento, CA moved up 14 spots year-over-year on Realtor.com's Hottest Market rankings, with listings receiving 30% more buyer interest than the national average.
  
  

Be sure to check back next month for our updated insights and trends to keep you informed on the latest developments. In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, our Home Loan Specialists are always ready to help you make the right move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Check our FAQs for responses to our most popular questions about our monthly housing updates.

How often does Churchill Mortgage send out market updates?

We publish real estate updates at the start of every month to help you stay informed on housing trends, mortgage rates, and economic news that could impact your next move.

Is the housing market going to crash in 2026?

About 40% of buyers and sellers say they’re concerned about a potential housing market crash this year. However, current data does not show signs of a broad market collapse. Inventory is rising in many areas, but price declines remain modest nationally (median list prices are down about 2% year over year). Most economists describe 2026 as a rebalancing year, not a crash cycle.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

According to Fannie Mae's March 2026 forecast, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to drop below 6% for the remainder of 2026, reaching 5.7% by year-end. However, short-term volatility is possible due to geopolitical tensions and inflation. If you’re watching for a better window to buy or refinance, Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch can help you track rates and get notified when they hit your target.

 

Are home prices going down right now?

Nationally, median list prices dipped about 2% year over year — the largest annual decline in over a year. That said, price trends vary significantly by metro. Some cities, like Raleigh, have seen more noticeable corrections, while others remain relatively stable. In many markets, sellers are adjusting expectations rather than cutting deeply.

Is it still a seller’s market?

In many areas, no. Only about 26% of major metros are still considered seller’s markets, and more sellers are expecting to make concessions.

How do I sign up to receive Churchill Mortgage’s market updates?

Just visit churchillmortgage.com/articles and look for the “Sign Up for Our Email Newsletter” section on the right-hand side near the bottom of the page.

When is the best time to sell a home in 2026?

 According to Realtor.com, the week of April 12–18, 2026 is the best time to list a home nationally. Homes listed that week historically sell 9 days faster and command prices up to $26,000 more than at the start of the year 

Can I talk to someone about what this means for my local market?

Absolutely! You can connect with a local Churchill Home Loan Specialist to talk through your goals and how market trends may impact your options.

Just click here to find an expert near you!

How can Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program help buyers?

Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program helps buyers by monitoring mortgage rates and notifying them when rates drop to their desired level. This gives buyers the opportunity to lock in lower rates, potentially saving thousands over the life of their loan. It's an excellent tool for buyers looking to maximize savings in a fluctuating market.

Why should I read Churchill’s real estate updates each month?

The housing market is always changing, and even small shifts in mortgage rates, inventory, or the broader economy can have a big impact on your buying power and timing.

Churchill’s monthly updates break down what’s happening nationally and regionally so you can stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're actively planning a move or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed helps you make smarter decisions—like when to lock in a rate, start a refinance, or begin your home search. We sort through the data, so you don’t have to.

What is happening with flood insurance and home buying in 2026?

 Since the launch of FEMA's Risk Rating 2.0, new flood insurance purchases have dropped by up to 39% and 77% of policyholders are now paying higher premiums. This is becoming an increasingly important affordability factor, particularly in flood-prone markets across the South and coastal regions.