From cooling inflation and housing policy changes to red-hot local markets, last month brought plenty of news that could impact buyers, sellers, and homeowners. Here's a look at the key economic trends, housing market updates, and regional highlights shaping real estate across the country.

Key Takeaways: September 2026 Housing Market

• Inflation held at 3.4% as the Fed approved its first rate hike since 2023.

• Inventory continues to improve, with some major markets posting 30 consecutive months of inventory growth.

• 66% of homeowners plan a major home investment, such as an HVAC upgrade, electrical or plumbing updates, and larger renovations like a bathroom remodel within the next five years.
  
  

The Big Picture: Economy & Rates

• Tariff-related cost pressures remain a challenge for homebuilders, with nearly 73% reporting higher material costs than a year ago and some citing increases of up to 15%.

• Inflation held steady at 3.4% in August, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.4%. Rising gas prices helped drive the monthly increase, but underlying inflation pressures continued to show signs of cooling.

• The Federal Reserve unanimously approved its first interest rate hike since 2023, raising its benchmark rate by 0.25% and signaling at least one more increase could come before year-end.

• The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August while unemployment held steady at 4.1%, a sign that the labor market remains resilient even as hiring continues at a more moderate pace.

National Housing Market Trends: September 2026

• A new survey found that 7 in 10 buyers of new-construction homes consider customization a must-have, with features like upgraded kitchens, storage, and finishes topping their wish lists.

• 72% of Americans would use AI for at least one home-buying task, while nearly half would consider purchasing a 3D-printed home.

• Immigration remains an important driver of rental demand, with approximately 87% of recent immigrants renting when they first arrive in the U.S.
  
  

National Housing Policy & Industry News: September 2026

Housing policy, technology, and affordability are all shaping how homes are being built and bought right now.

• Home shoppers may find their best opportunity of the year during the week of Sept. 27 to Oct. 3, when inventory is expected to peak and buyer competition typically slows.

• Forty states introduced bills limiting local zoning authority to speed housing development, a strategy that can boost supply and affordability but may reduce local control overgrowth and planning.

• Behr named "Grounded," an olive-green shade inspired by nature, as its 2027 Color of the Year, reflecting a trend toward earthy colors as 77% of Americans say connecting with nature helps them feel grounded.

• The Trump administration is exploring manufactured housing reforms that could reduce the cost of some homes by up to $10,000 and expand affordable housing options nationwide.

• An estimated $17.2 trillion is expected to change hands through the Great Wealth Transfer by 2045, and nearly 60% of that wealth is concentrated in just 10 states.

• Housing policy remained in focus this month as the Trump administration nominated Matt Jones to lead the FHA, an agency that backs more than 15% of U.S. home purchase loans.

• Lawmakers overwhelmingly approved a bill aimed at shielding homeowners from higher electric bills by requiring large power users, such as AI data centers, to bear more of the infrastructure costs they create.

Homeowners Are Choosing to Improve Rather Than Move

Many homeowners may be holding onto their current mortgage rates, but they're not standing still. According to a new Angi survey, homeowners continue to invest in repairs, renovations, and upgrades, reinforcing the value they see in their homes.

• 66% plan to make a major home investment within five years.

• 56% expect to begin or continue a home improvement project in the next three months.

• More than 25% are accelerating projects now to avoid future cost increases.

• 95% believe home improvements have been a smart financial decision.

• 96% say those projects have improved their quality of life. 
  
  

Homeowners continue to invest in their properties, with 56% planning a home improvement project in the next three months and 66% expecting to make a major home investment within five years.

Regional Housing Market Updates: September 2026

What’s Happening Across the Country

While national trends are shifting toward balance, local markets continue to move at their own pace. Here’s a concise look at what stands out by region.

Southeast Housing Market 

• Fort Myers remains a buyer-friendly market despite shrinking inventory, with homes for sale down 16.8% year-over-year, while buyers continue to negotiate discounts, especially on condos, where prices fell 5.6% and homes sold for just 86.7% of list price.

• Atlanta’s housing market is giving buyers more leverage, with inventory rising for the 30th straight month to more than 34,000 listings, providing more opportunities to negotiate and wait for price cuts despite home prices increasing 2.5% year-over-year.

• Dollywood has helped transform Sevier County, Tennessee, into a major tourism and housing market, driving job growth and development while also increasing pressure on workforce housing.

• South Carolina earned an "A" on Realtor.com's 2026 Housing Report Card and is home to two of the nation's top-ranked markets for new construction: Charleston and Greenville.
  
  
  

Charleston was named one of the nation's top markets for new construction, helping South Carolina earn an "A" on Realtor.com's 2026 Housing Report Card.

Northeast Housing Market

• Richmond dropped a proposal to allow up to three homes per residential lot but is still considering larger ADUs as part of its housing reform efforts amid ongoing community debate.

• New Jersey is encouraging communities to make room for more housing, offering incentives for zoning changes that support new home construction.

• Massachusetts housing inventory continues to improve, with Worcester-area listings up 12% year-over-year.

• Maryland launched a new $50 million home buyer program that helps eligible teachers and first responders with down payment and closing cost assistance. 

  
  

Midwest Housing Market 

• Rockford, Illinois ranked as the nation's hottest housing market, attracting 2.9 times the national average number of listing views while maintaining a median list price of just $269,900.

• Des Moines, Iowa earned the highest grade in Realtor.com's 2026 housing market rankings, combining strong affordability, healthy home construction, and an average home value of just over $210,000.

• Kenosha, Wisconsin ranked as the nation's No. 2 hottest housing market in August, supported by strong buyer demand, a median listing price of $400,000, and home values that have climbed 6.6% over the past year.

• St. Louis home sales increased 2.2% year-over-year in July, while inventory jumped nearly 14%, creating more choices for buyers even as limited supply keeps the market competitive.
  
  

   

Southwest Housing Market 

• Oklahoma City earned an A- in Realtor.com's 2026 housing market rankings, standing out for its combination of affordability and strong homebuilding activity.

• Texas Senate Bills 15 and 840 are helping increase the supply of starter homes and apartments, which could improve affordability and give buyers and renters more options, although some local regulations may limit those benefits in certain markets.

• Phoenix renters snapped up 12,741 apartments in the first half of 2026, marking the market's strongest six-month period in more than 25 years.

• A new report ranked Midland, Texas, among the country's top under-the-radar short-term rental markets, highlighting strong income potential for investors.

Mountain States Housing Market

• Wyoming and Nebraska are tackling housing shortages with innovative solutions, including affordable dome homes and construction workforce training programs to boost housing supply.

• Colorado offers one of the nation's most generous first-time home buyer programs, providing up to $25,000 in down payment assistance with grant options that don't require repayment.

• Salt Lake County's median home price reached a record $645,000 in the second quarter, highlighting the affordability challenges facing many Utah home buyers.

• The Ogden, Utah housing market is becoming more balanced, with active listings up 9% from a year ago, prices softening slightly, and buyers gaining more negotiating power as homes sell for about 97% of asking price.
  
  
  
  

West Coast Housing Market 

• San Diego’s housing market is showing signs of cooling as job growth slows and labor force participation declines, which could reduce buyer competition even as home sales rose more than 7% year-over-year and single-family home prices reached a record $1.1 million+.

• Seattle posted the steepest home-sales decline among the nation’s 40 largest housing markets, with sales down 8% year-over-year as inventory climbed above 16,000 listings and median home prices fell nearly 4%, giving buyers significantly more negotiating power.

• After wildfires destroyed roughly 12,000 homes in 2025, California passed new laws aimed at helping homeowners navigate insurance claims and recovery more quickly.
  
  

Be sure to check back next month for our updated insights and trends to keep you informed on the latest developments. In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, our Home Loan Specialists are always ready to help you make the right move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Check our FAQs for responses to our most popular questions about our monthly housing updates.

How often does Churchill Mortgage send out market updates?

We publish real estate updates at the start of every month to help you stay informed on housing trends, mortgage rates, and economic news that could impact your next move.

Is the housing market going to crash in 2026?

About 40% of buyers and sellers say they’re concerned about a potential housing market crash this year. However, current data does not show signs of a broad market collapse. Inventory is rising in many areas, but price declines remain modest nationally (median list prices are down about 2% year over year). Most economists describe 2026 as a rebalancing year, not a crash cycle.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

According to Fannie Mae's March 2026 forecast, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to drop below 6% for the remainder of 2026, reaching 5.7% by year-end. However, short-term volatility is possible due to geopolitical tensions and inflation. If you’re watching for a better window to buy or refinance, Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch can help you track rates and get notified when they hit your target.

 

Are home prices going down right now?

Nationally, median list prices dipped about 2% year over year — the largest annual decline in over a year. That said, price trends vary significantly by metro. Some cities, like Raleigh, have seen more noticeable corrections, while others remain relatively stable. In many markets, sellers are adjusting expectations rather than cutting deeply.

Is it still a seller’s market?

In many areas, no. Only about 26% of major metros are still considered seller’s markets, and more sellers are expecting to make concessions.

How do I sign up to receive Churchill Mortgage’s market updates?

Just visit churchillmortgage.com/articles and look for the “Sign Up for Our Email Newsletter” section on the right-hand side near the bottom of the page.

When is the best time to sell a home in 2026?

 According to Realtor.com, the week of April 12–18, 2026 is the best time to list a home nationally. Homes listed that week historically sell 9 days faster and command prices up to $26,000 more than at the start of the year 

Can I talk to someone about what this means for my local market?

Absolutely! You can connect with a local Churchill Home Loan Specialist to talk through your goals and how market trends may impact your options.

Just click here to find an expert near you!

How can Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program help buyers?

Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program helps buyers by monitoring mortgage rates and notifying them when rates drop to their desired level. This gives buyers the opportunity to lock in lower rates, potentially saving thousands over the life of their loan. It's an excellent tool for buyers looking to maximize savings in a fluctuating market.

Why should I read Churchill’s real estate updates each month?

The housing market is always changing, and even small shifts in mortgage rates, inventory, or the broader economy can have a big impact on your buying power and timing.

Churchill’s monthly updates break down what’s happening nationally and regionally so you can stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're actively planning a move or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed helps you make smarter decisions—like when to lock in a rate, start a refinance, or begin your home search. We sort through the data, so you don’t have to.

What is happening with flood insurance and home buying in 2026?

 Since the launch of FEMA's Risk Rating 2.0, new flood insurance purchases have dropped by up to 39% and 77% of policyholders are now paying higher premiums. This is becoming an increasingly important affordability factor, particularly in flood-prone markets across the South and coastal regions.