The U.S. housing market is entering spring 2026 in a state of cautious transition. Mortgage rates are continuing to fluctuate, affordability is improving for the eighth straight month, and buyers are finding more options than they have in years — but economic uncertainty, job losses, and geopolitical tensions are keeping many households on the sidelines. Here's everything you need to know about where the housing market stands right now. 

Key Takeaways: March 2026 Housing Market

• U.S. housing shortage has surpassed 4 million homes
• Affordability has improved for 8 consecutive months
• The Midwest and Northeast are the strongest-performing regions in the country
• First-time buyers made up 34% of February purchases — the highest share since last spring
• The best week to list your home in 2026 is April 12–18

The Big Picture: Economy & Rates

The economic backdrop heading into spring 2026 is mixed — but not without reason for optimism. Job losses and consumer uncertainty are real, but affordability is quietly improving, and mortgage rates are trending in the right direction.

• U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 jobs in February, marking the largest monthly job loss since October.
  
  
• Consumer confidence fell about 2% this month, hitting the lowest level of the year, largely due to rising geopolitical tensions and higher gas prices.
  
  
• Inflation expectations for the next year held at 3.4%, as global tensions and energy prices continue to influence consumer outlook.
  
  
• The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its March 18 meeting, taking a patient approach as inflation continues to ease.
  
  
• President Trump signed an executive order on March 13 aimed at cutting mortgage red tape, claiming it will save home buyers up to $5,000 and bring rates to their lowest level in five years.
  
  

👉 The Takeaway: Despite short-term volatility, the overall direction of mortgage rates is improving. If you've been waiting on the sidelines, now is a good time to connect with your Home Loan Specialist and start planning.

National Housing Market Trends: March 2026

The U.S. housing market is still tight — but buyers are gaining ground. Affordability is improving, first-time buyer activity is climbing, and wages are finally growing faster than home prices.

• The U.S. housing shortage has surpassed 4 million homes, extending a supply gap that's been building for more than a decade.

• New homes made up nearly 15% of all homes sold last year, the highest share since 2005.

•  1.8 million Gen Z and millennial households were "missing" from the 2025 market due to affordability constraints, representing significant pent-up demand. 

• First-time buyers made up 34% of February home purchases — the highest share since last spring.

• Affordability improved for the eighth straight month, reaching its highest level since March 2022.

• Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by nearly 4%.

• Nearly 19% of Redfin users searched for homes outside their current metro in late 2025, up from 16% five years ago.

• In Q4 2025, 87 of the 100 largest metros were driven primarily by out-of-market buyers, not local shoppers.

• Just 12% of active listings nationwide are priced above $1 million, highlighting how concentrated true luxury inventory remains.

• The 2025 Cost vs. Value Report shows a wood deck now delivers a 95% return on investment — one of the highest-value home upgrades in 2026.
  
  

👉 The Takeaway: Buyers are more mobile and more motivated than the headlines suggest. Pent-up demand is real, and as affordability slowly improves, expect more activity — especially in markets where prices haven't run away.

First-time buyers made up 34% of February home purchases — the highest share since last spring.

National Housing Policy & Industry News: March 2026

Policy, insurance, and construction costs are reshaping what it means to buy and build a home in 2026.

• A new Senate bill aims to remove tariffs on homebuilding materials after construction costs have risen 34% since 2020, adding about $10,900 to the cost of a newly built home.
  
  
• Lawmakers are proposing new limits on large investors buying single-family homes, though no final definition has been agreed upon.
  
  
• Since Risk Rating 2.0 launched, new flood insurance purchases have dropped by up to 39%, and 77% of policyholders are paying higher premiums — making insurance an increasingly important affordability factor in flood-prone markets.
  
  
• Economists are watching a rise in AI-driven white-collar layoffs, which could make higher-income workers more cautious about buying homes if job security becomes a concern.
  
  
• If you're thinking about listing this spring, the week of April 12–18 is shaping up to be the best time to sell in 2026 — homes listed that week historically sell 9 days faster and command prices up to $26,000 more than at the start of the year.

   

👉 The Takeaway: Between rate relief on the horizon, new policy moves, and rising construction costs, the factors shaping this market are bigger than just supply and demand. Staying informed (and working with the right people) matters more than ever.

Hattiesburg, MS is one of the hottest housing markets in the country right now, with home prices up 10% year-over-year.

The Hottest Housing Markets in the U.S. — Spring 2026

While major metros grab most of the headlines, some of the strongest price growth in the country is happening in smaller, more affordable cities. Here are the top 10 hottest markets heading into spring 2026, ranked by year-over-year price growth:

1. Youngstown, OH — 19.8%
2. Lewiston, ME — 10.7%
3. Hattiesburg, MS — 10.0%
4. Wausau, WI — 10.0%
5. Traverse City, MI — 10.0%
6. Kenosha, WI — 9.8%
7. Kingston, NY — 9.4%
8. South Bend, IN — 9.3%
9. Missoula, MT — 9.2%
10. Kokomo, IN — 8.7%
    
    

Regional Housing Market Updates: March 2026

What’s Happening Across the Country

While national trends are shifting toward balance, local markets continue to move at their own pace. Here’s a concise look at what stands out by region.

Southeast Housing Market — March 2026

The South continues to attract buyers from across the country, more than anywhere else in the U.S.

• In Q4 2025, 64.6% of home search traffic in Southern metros came from out-of-market buyers, the highest share of any U.S. region.

• Charleston, South Carolina saw 75.8% of home search traffic come from outside the metro.
  

• Arrington, College Grove, and Walden saw the fastest home price growth in Tennessee, with values rising $47K, $45K, and $35K respectively over the past year.

• In New Orleans, renewed interest in the Four Seasons luxury condos brought nearly $5 million in local buyer contracts over two weeks, suggesting high-end demand is picking back up heading into 2026.
  
  

Northeast Housing Market — March 2026

The Northeast remains one of the most competitive and supply-constrained markets in the country — making it tough for buyers but strong for sellers and home values.

• 62% of demand in Northeast metros now comes from outside the area, compared to being primarily local buyer-driven in 2019.

• New Jersey home prices are up 5.6% year-over-year and Connecticut is up 5.26%, defying the broader national cooling trend.

• Maryland's median sale price is $448,500, up 4.2% year-over-year, with homes selling in just 28 days and about 42% going above list price.

• Philadelphia home listings with HOA fees have grown to 29% of all listings, with the median monthly fee rising to about $215 — an added cost burden for buyers already navigating a tight market.
  
  

HOA fees are becoming a bigger part of the affordability equation, 29% of Philadelphia listings and 35% of Oregon listings now include dues.

Midwest Housing Market — March 2026

The Midwest is the strongest-performing region in the country and is quickly becoming a top destination for buyers priced out of coastal markets.

• In Midwestern cities like Dubuque, Iowa and Wausau, Wisconsin, nearly 80% of millennials own homes, thanks to median prices well under $400,000 and strong entry-level inventory.

• Omaha's out-of-metro demand rose from 36% in 2019 to 59.7% in 2025, one of the largest shifts nationally.

• Michigan set a new goal of 115,000 more housing units after adding 87,000 ahead of schedule.

• Downtown Oklahoma City may gain 200+ new apartments as developers convert historic office buildings into housing, part of a growing office-to-residential trend nationally.
  
  

Texas Housing Market — March 2026

Texas is recalibrating after years of outsized growth, but opportunity still exists across the state's major metros.

• The average Texas home value is $306,682, down 2.2% over the past year, with homes going to pending in around 31 days statewide.
  
  
• San Antonio remains the most stable major Texas market, with consistent year-over-year job growth and most homes priced below $400,000.
  
  
• Luxury homes in Houston start around $794,000 — well below the national luxury threshold of $1.2 million, making it one of the most affordable luxury entry points in the country.
  
  
• Dallas still sees majority-local buyer activity at 68%, though that's down from 74.4% in 2019.

Southwest Housing Market Update – February 2026

After years of pandemic-driven price surges, the Southwest is cooling into a more balanced market giving buyers more breathing room than they've had in years.

• New Mexico's median sale price is $373,200, up 1.1% year-over-year, with 6 months of supply putting the state right at the balanced market benchmark. Albuquerque is leading the state with 6.1% price growth.

• Nevada lawmakers are pushing to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes, but experts warn it could actually reduce supply. Home price growth in Reno-Sparks has already cooled from 22% annually during the pandemic to just 3.8%.

• Paradise Valley, Arizona entered the top 10 most expensive zip codes in the U.S. with a $5.5 million median list price and homes averaging nearly 5,800 square feet.

• Arizona remains a top destination for in-migration, adding more than 67,000 residents in 2025 with Phoenix accounting for over two-thirds of that growth and maintaining one of the strongest demographic profiles in the country. 

Newport Coast, CA now ranks as America’s most expensive ZIP code, with a median listing price of $12.5 million. This home is listed for sale at $27.9 million.

Pacific Northwest Housing Market — March 2026

Lower mortgage rates are starting to bring buyers back to the Pacific Northwest, but affordability remains a real barrier — especially in higher-priced markets like Seattle, Portland, and Bend.

• Washington state's median home price sits at $625,300 as of February 2026, with homes averaging 50 days on market and inventory up 14.3% year-over-year — giving buyers noticeably more options than a year ago.

• Boise, Idaho approved nearly 2,000 new housing units as the city pushes denser development near downtown and transit corridors to keep up with population growth.

• HOA fees are appearing in about 35% of Oregon home listings, up from 26% in 2019 — adding an increasingly important cost consideration for buyers.

• A new $26 million horse racing complex in Evanston, Wyoming is sparking housing interest from Utah buyers drawn to lower home prices and Wyoming's lack of state income tax.
  
  

California Housing Market — March 2026

California’s housing story remains centered on affordability and the slow, uneven search for relief across its major metros.

• Newport Coast, California now ranks as America’s most expensive ZIP code, with a median listing price of $12.5 million, up 29.3% year-over-year.

• There are still some affordable options in California — inland markets like the Central Valley offer median home prices starting around $480,000, and cities like Sacramento and Fresno remain significantly more attainable than coastal metros, attracting buyers priced out of LA, San Diego, and the Bay Area.
  
  
• Los Angeles and San Francisco are among the top metros nationally for outbound searches, with more people looking to leave than move in.
  • Sacramento is bucking that trend, ranking as the most searched destination for relocating home buyers nationally from December through February.

• California home buying has fallen below Great Recession levels. The state recorded 24% fewer home sales over the past three years than during the 2007–2009 housing crash, even as national sales ran 13% higher over the same period.
  

• San Diego home values average around $989,768, with homes sitting on the market 28 to 34 days. Only about 11% of local households can afford a median-priced home, but well-priced entry and mid-level homes are still moving in under 30 days. 

   

Be sure to check back next month for our updated insights and trends to keep you informed on the latest developments. In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, our Home Loan Specialists are always ready to help you make the right move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Check our FAQs for responses to our most popular questions about our monthly housing updates.

How often does Churchill Mortgage send out market updates?

We publish real estate updates at the start of every month to help you stay informed on housing trends, mortgage rates, and economic news that could impact your next move.

Is the housing market going to crash in 2026?

About 40% of buyers and sellers say they’re concerned about a potential housing market crash this year. However, current data does not show signs of a broad market collapse. Inventory is rising in many areas, but price declines remain modest nationally (median list prices are down about 2% year over year). Most economists describe 2026 as a rebalancing year, not a crash cycle.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

According to Fannie Mae's March 2026 forecast, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to drop below 6% for the remainder of 2026, reaching 5.7% by year-end. However, short-term volatility is possible due to geopolitical tensions and inflation. If you’re watching for a better window to buy or refinance, Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch can help you track rates and get notified when they hit your target.

 

Are home prices going down right now?

Nationally, median list prices dipped about 2% year over year — the largest annual decline in over a year. That said, price trends vary significantly by metro. Some cities, like Raleigh, have seen more noticeable corrections, while others remain relatively stable. In many markets, sellers are adjusting expectations rather than cutting deeply.

Is it a buyer’s market in 2026?

In some cities, yes.

Six months of supply is typically considered a balanced market. Several major metros — including Miami (9.8 months), Austin (9.5 months), and Pittsburgh (8.6 months) — are now well above that level. That gives buyers more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in recent years.

How do I sign up to receive Churchill Mortgage’s market updates?

Just visit churchillmortgage.com/articles and look for the “Sign Up for Our Email Newsletter” section on the right-hand side near the bottom of the page.

When is the best time to sell a home in 2026?

 According to Realtor.com, the week of April 12–18, 2026 is the best time to list a home nationally. Homes listed that week historically sell 9 days faster and command prices up to $26,000 more than at the start of the year 

Can I talk to someone about what this means for my local market?

Absolutely! You can connect with a local Churchill Home Loan Specialist to talk through your goals and how market trends may impact your options.

Just click here to find an expert near you!

How can Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program help buyers?

Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program helps buyers by monitoring mortgage rates and notifying them when rates drop to their desired level. This gives buyers the opportunity to lock in lower rates, potentially saving thousands over the life of their loan. It's an excellent tool for buyers looking to maximize savings in a fluctuating market.

Why should I read Churchill’s real estate updates each month?

The housing market is always changing, and even small shifts in mortgage rates, inventory, or the broader economy can have a big impact on your buying power and timing.

Churchill’s monthly updates break down what’s happening nationally and regionally so you can stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're actively planning a move or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed helps you make smarter decisions—like when to lock in a rate, start a refinance, or begin your home search. We sort through the data, so you don’t have to.

What is happening with flood insurance and home buying in 2026?

 Since the launch of FEMA's Risk Rating 2.0, new flood insurance purchases have dropped by up to 39% and 77% of policyholders are now paying higher premiums. This is becoming an increasingly important affordability factor, particularly in flood-prone markets across the South and coastal regions.