From cooling inflation and housing policy changes to red-hot local markets, last month brought plenty of news that could impact buyers, sellers, and homeowners. Here's a look at the key economic trends, housing market updates, and regional highlights shaping real estate across the country.

Key Takeaways: October 2026 Housing Market

• Inflation rose to 3.7%, while unemployment held steady at 4.2%.
  
  
• Existing home sales increased 1.5%, despite higher mortgage rates.
  
  
• The median existing-home price hit a record $417,500 for September, up 1.3% from a year ago
  
  

The Big Picture: Economy & Rates

• Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, driven largely by higher energy costs, while housing costs continued to climb, increasing 3.2% from a year ago.
  
  
• The U.S. job market remained steady in September, with unemployment holding at 4.2%, while employers added 29,000 jobs and wages rose 3.0% from a year ago.

• Americans are expected to spend a record $13.5 billion on Halloween this year, even as many households cut back on travel and dining out, highlighting consumers' willingness to prioritize seasonal celebrations.

• The Fed isn't done fighting inflation, with policymakers signaling another interest rate hike is likely before year-end.

National Housing Policy & Industry News: September 2026

• Buying may still beat renting in many markets despite 7% mortgage rates, according to a new analysis that found the strongest financial advantage tends to be in lower-priced homes.
  
  
• Fixing America's housing stock could carry a hefty price tag; The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia estimates outstanding home repair needs total nearly $200 billion nationwide.
  
  
• The “silver tsunami” could bring 13.9 million homes onto the market over the next decade as baby boomers and older generations leave their homes, potentially easing the inventory shortage.
  
  
• More than 2,100 rural families became homeowners through a USDA loan program in 2026, with faster application processing and expanded access to affordable financing. See If You Qualify for a USDA Loan →
  
  
• The so-called “Costco effect” is influencing housing decisions, as shoppers increasingly prioritize living near a warehouse location when moving or buying a home.
  
  
• First-time buyers represented 31% of sales in September, up from 30% in August and 30% one year ago.
  
  
• The future of homebuilding may be arriving faster than expected, as 3D-printing company Icon secures $200 million to expand a technology designed to lower construction costs and increase housing supply.
  
  
  A nearby Costco is becoming a sought-after neighborhood amenity, with some buyers factoring warehouse access into their home search and relocation decisions.
  
  
  

National Housing Market Trends: October 2026

Housing policy, technology, and affordability are all shaping how homes are being built and bought right now.

• Homebuilding activity remained resilient in August, with residential construction spending climbing to an annualized $882.3 billion despite ongoing affordability and cost pressures.
  
  
• The national median existing-home price reached $417,500 in September, up 1.3% year-over-year and a record high for the month.
  
  
• 40% of first-time buyers say a price reduction would give them the confidence they need to move forward with a purchase.
  
  
• First-time buyers are negotiating more aggressively, with 86% comfortable making an offer below asking price.
  
  
• Kenosha, Wisconsin topped Realtor.com's hottest markets list as buyers continue seeking more affordable alternatives within commuting distance of Chicago and Milwaukee.
  
  
• Rather than waiting to buy on their own, 60% of Americans say they'd rather purchase a home now with a co-buyer than continue renting.
  
  
• Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September, even as mortgage rates moved higher.
  
  
• Starter homes are increasingly taking the form of condos and townhomes, which grew from 18% of starter-home inventory in 2019 to 27.1% in 2026.
  
  
• Zillow found that sellers who never listed their home on the MLS typically sold for 1.3% less than similar homes marketed publicly, highlighting the value of maximizing buyer exposure.

Regional Housing Market Updates: October 2026

What’s Happening Across the Country

While national trends are shifting toward balance, local markets continue to move at their own pace. Here’s a concise look at what stands out by region.

Northeast Housing Market 

• Baltimore leaders are seeking $100 million in private funding to help revitalize more than 37,000 vacant properties over the next 15 years.
  
  
• New Jersey unveiled a plan to build up to 40,000 new homes, including housing on underused state land and conversions of vacant offices and strip malls, to help address the state's housing shortage.
  
  
• Hartford, Connecticut ranked as the second-hottest housing market in the country last month, with homes selling in roughly 35 days and drawing more than four times the national average buyer interest.
  
  
• Massachusetts voters could make it easier to build starter homes this November through a ballot measure that would allow homes on smaller lots and potentially add thousands of new homes each year.
  
  

When it comes to escaping winter, Florida is still hard to beat. The Sunshine State landed 63 cities in the top 100 snowbird destinations, more than any other state.

Southeast Housing Market

• The New Orleans housing market is giving buyers more room to negotiate, with active inventory up 4.6% year-over-year to 4,512 homes, homes selling for about 93% of asking price, and the market carrying 7.4 months of supply.
  
  
• Jacksonville led all major U.S. housing markets in year-over-year improvement, climbing 56 spots in Realtor.com's hotness rankings, while the area's typical home value remained relatively stable at $284,832, down just 0.4% from a year ago.
  
  
• Southern housing markets continued to show resilience in September, with home sales rising 2.8% as buyers benefited from increased inventory and greater negotiating power.
  
  
• Birmingham home prices set a new August record, climbing 6.2% year-over-year even as inventory rose and sales activity cooled.
  
  
• Florida remained the nation's snowbird capital, placing 63 cities in the top 100 destinations and claiming the top two spots overall with Winter Haven and Lakeland.
  
  

Midwest Housing Market 

• The Midwest dominated Realtor.com’s September hot-markets list, with Kenosha, Wisconsin, Rockford, Illinois, and Peoria, Illinois ranking among the nation’s hottest housing markets.
  
  
• Toledo, Ohio had the nation's largest share of starter homes in 2026, with 42.1% of listings falling within the entry-level price range.
  
  
• St. Louis may soon add over 120 affordable housing units through redevelopment projects aimed at expanding housing options and revitalizing local communities.

• New construction remains more limited across much of the Midwest, leading new homes to command premiums over existing homes in cities like Cleveland (+50.7%), Milwaukee (+46.0%), Detroit (+44.5%), and Kansas City (+30.9%). 

  
  

  Nearly 7 in 10 Texas home buyers faced no competing offers this year, giving buyers more leverage, more choices, and a better chance to negotiate favorable terms.

Southwest Housing Market 

• Abilene, Texas remains highly competitive, with home prices hitting a record $315,000 in August, inventory down 28.9% year-over-year to just 660 listings, and homes selling for an average of 98.7% of asking price.
  
  
• Nearly 7 in 10 Texas home buyers faced no competing offers this year, up from 57% in 2025, giving buyers more choices, more time to decide, and less pressure to bid above asking price.
  
  
• New construction is becoming a competitive option in Phoenix, where newly built homes cost about 5% less per square foot than existing homes.
  
  
• Reno's housing market remains competitive, with homes spending a median of just 21 days on the market and typical home values reaching $571,562.
  
  
  

Mountain States Housing Market

• The Idaho Falls housing market is giving buyers more leverage, with August home sales down 33.7% year-over-year, 742 homes on the market, and sellers accepting an average of 97.2% of their asking price.
  
  
• Denver ranked among the five most improved large housing markets in September, climbing 18 spots year-over-year as homes sold faster than they did a year ago.
  
  
• Salt Lake City buyers may find better value in new construction, with new homes selling for about 8% less per square foot than existing homes.
  
  
• The average home value in Billings reached $401,071 in September, up 2.4% from a year ago, with homes selling at or near asking price.
  
  

West Coast Housing Market 

• California voters will decide on Proposition 37, a measure that could help more home buyers afford a down payment through a new state-backed assistance program.
  
  
• Spokane remains one of Washington's more affordable housing markets, with a typical home value of about $393,000 and homes going under contract in around 25 days.
  
  
• Condo buyers in Ventura, California, had more options this summer, with inventory up nearly 13% from a year ago and homes taking a median 62 days to sell.
  
  
• Buyers are finding discounts on new construction in parts of the West, with new homes selling for 14.4% less per square foot in San Diego, 11.6% less in Sacramento, and 5.5% less in Riverside.

Be sure to check back next month for our updated insights and trends to keep you informed on the latest developments. In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, our Home Loan Specialists are always ready to help you make the right move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Check our FAQs for responses to our most popular questions about our monthly housing updates.

Is now a good time to buy a house?

The right time to buy depends on your finances, goals, and timeline. While affordability remains a challenge, buyers are gaining more negotiating power thanks to increased inventory, more price reductions, and fewer bidding wars in many markets. A Churchill Mortgage Home Loan Specialist can help you evaluate your budget, financing options, and long-term goals to determine whether now makes sense for you.

Will the Fed raise interest rates again in 2026?

It's possible. While inflation has cooled significantly from its peak, it increased to 3.7% in September, and recent Fed communications have suggested policymakers remain concerned about inflation staying above their 2% target. As a result, some officials have indicated that another rate hike could still be on the table before year-end.

For home buyers, it's important to remember that mortgage rates don't move exactly with Fed decisions. They're influenced by a variety of factors, including inflation expectations, economic growth, and bond market activity. That's why mortgage rates can sometimes rise or fall even when the Fed leaves its benchmark rate unchanged.

If you're considering buying a home, a Churchill Mortgage Home Loan Specialist can help you evaluate your options and build a strategy based on your goals rather than trying to time future rate decisions.

How often does Churchill Mortgage send out market updates?

We publish real estate updates each month to help you stay informed on housing trends, mortgage rates, and economic news that could impact your next move.

How do I sign up to receive Churchill Mortgage’s market updates?

Just visit churchillmortgage.com/articles and look for the “Sign Up for Our Email Newsletter” section on the right-hand side near the bottom of the page.

Will home prices go down in 2026?

Home prices have remained surprisingly resilient. The national median existing-home price reached a record $417,500 in September, up 1.3% from a year ago. While some local markets are seeing more inventory and slower price growth, home values nationally have continued to rise. Rather than a broad decline, many experts expect conditions to vary significantly by market.

Can I talk to someone about what this means for my local market?

Absolutely! You can connect with a local Churchill Home Loan Specialist to talk through your goals and how market trends may impact your options.

Just click here to find an expert near you!

How can Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program help buyers?

Churchill Mortgage’s Rate Watch program helps buyers by monitoring mortgage rates and notifying them when rates drop to their desired level. This gives buyers the opportunity to lock in lower rates, potentially saving thousands over the life of their loan. It's an excellent tool for buyers looking to maximize savings in a fluctuating market.

Why should I read Churchill’s real estate updates each month?

The housing market is always changing, and even small shifts in mortgage rates, inventory, or the broader economy can have a big impact on your buying power and timing.

Churchill’s monthly updates break down what’s happening nationally and regionally so you can stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're actively planning a move or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed helps you make smarter decisions—like when to lock in a rate, start a refinance, or begin your home search. We sort through the data, so you don’t have to.